Inflation: consultants already estimate that in June it will be around 5 percent, with food on the rise

The food sector continues to drive the monthly index

The price surveys carried out by economic consultants already anticipate that inflation this June will remain around 5%. The food item, which continues with price increases at high levels, continues to drive the monthly index.

According to the weekly survey of retail prices carried out by the consulting firm EcoGo, during the first week of June (with a cut to June 6), food had a variation of 1% compared to the previous week. With this data, the inflation of food consumed within the home in June will reach 4.7% monthly.

June inflation is driven by increases in gas rates (between 18.5% and 25%) and electricity (16.5%), prepaid (10%) and schools in the province of Buenos Aires (8%)

Meanwhile, the projected headline inflation rate for June is 5.1%: a drop from the monthly peak of 6.7% registered last March, but it still remains at high levels, above 5%. “This increase is driven by increases in gas rates (between 18.5% and 25%) and electricity (16.5%), prepaid (10%) and schools in the province of Buenos Aires (8%)” detailed the EcoGo report.

In food, the meat category showed a downward trend in the first week of the month, with a fall of 1.1%. “The front cuts pushed down the meat category, which was 2% below the previous week, and the rest of the prices remained constant,” he said. Meanwhile, with a rise in products such as fresh bread (8.3%) and packaged bread (3.9%), the category of baked goods, cereals and pasta had a rise of 4.8%, despite the launch of the wheat trust, a measure that showed few results.

In the first week of the month, meanwhile, fruits experienced an increase of 2.4%
In the first week of the month, meanwhile, fruits experienced an increase of 2.4%

In the first week of the month, meanwhile, fruits experienced an increase of 2.4% –if apple, orange and lemon are excluded, the rise was 6%– and vegetables remained stable, with a drop in 0.1%, with an increase in the case of potatoes of 1.5 percent. The survey sample reaches 6,000 products from four supermarkets.

The products that increased the most in the first week of June were: fresh bread (8.3%), eggs (6.6%), fruits without apples, oranges and lemons (6%), offal and bovine offal (4.2 %), packaged bread (3.9%), rice (2.9%) and juices and soft drinks (2%).

In the Analytica consulting firm, the projections are similar: they estimate an inflation of 5.3% for May, and 5.1% for this month of June, with the price of food increasing in similar percentages and with the impact of the tariffs of energy, which drives up regulated prices.

With these projections, a very bad first semester is ending, which is going to leave a high inertia. Our projection is that for the second six months of the year, monthly inflation will be below 5%.

“With these projections, a very bad first semester is ending that is going to leave a high inertia. Our projection is that for the second six months of the year, monthly inflation will be below 5%. During that period, the key will be in the monthly devaluation rate,” said the economist. Claudio Caprarulodirector of the consultancy.

From the consulting firm LCG, meanwhile, they also expect 5.3% for May and a record of around 5% for June. “Food is possibly going along the same lines, perhaps just a few tenths higher. An inflation above 5% turns decisions that should be simple into complicated decisions for agents”, he indicated. Guido Lawrenceconsulting economist.

Last week, inflation projections for 2022 skyrocketed: consultants expect a rise of 72.6%, according to the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) carried out each month by the Central Bank. This figure marks an upward correction of 7.5 percentage points in relation to the measurement of the previous month. For May, whose index will be known on June 14, analysts expect a monthly 5.2% and for June they forecast 5 percent.

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